Gaza Ceasefire Collapse: Human Cost and Development Reversal

Verdict: False

### Topic
Gaza Ceasefire Collapse: Human Cost and Development Reversal

### Summary
Indirect talks in Cairo failed around May 15, 2024, leading to the collapse of a Gaza ceasefire, despite Hamas accepting a proposal. This triggered an Israeli military offensive in Rafah, displacing hundreds of thousands and causing significant civilian casualties. The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted humanitarian aid flows, hampered long-term reconstruction efforts, and set back Gaza's human development index by 69 years.

### Body
The Gaza ceasefire collapse was triggered by the failure of indirect talks in Cairo, Egypt, around [May 15, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), to secure a truce between Israel and Hamas. This breakdown occurred despite Hamas accepting a three-stage ceasefire proposal on [May 6, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), which Israel subsequently dismissed as "far from Israel's essential demands" and a "ruse". Israel's military offensive in Rafah, which began on [May 7, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), and its control of the Rafah crossing, further contributed to the faltering of the ceasefire agreement. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued new provisional measures on [May 24, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), ordering Israel to immediately halt military operations in Rafah and open the Rafah border crossing for urgent aid deliveries, a decision supported by [13 votes to two](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) following a request from South Africa.

As of [May 18, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), approximately [800,000 Palestinians were displaced from Rafah](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) due to the ongoing military offensive, with [over 450,000 having fled Rafah by May 14, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), and another [100,000 evacuating the north](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/). In [May 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), [228 incidents of explosive weapon use](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) were recorded in Gaza, resulting in [1,745 civilian casualties](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), including [991 killed and 754 injured](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), with at least [103 children and 60 women](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) among the dead. The overall death toll in Gaza since [October 7, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), reached at least [35,173 people killed and 79,061 wounded by May 14, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/). The UN revised its estimate in [May 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), reporting that [32% of those killed were children, 20% women, 40% men, and 8% elderly](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/). The UN Security Council adopted [Resolution 2735 on June 10, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), detailing a three-phase ceasefire deal, yet it took [over seven months and thousands more Palestinian deaths](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) before a similar agreement was reached.

The Gaza ceasefire collapse led to significant disruption of humanitarian aid flows, with the [Rafah Crossing closure](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) impeding the entry and exit of international humanitarian workers and fuel shortages nearly halting the implementation and coordination of aid activities. Between [May 20 and 26, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), the provision of fuel to critical water and wastewater facilities in the Gaza Strip reached its lowest levels, with only [30,160 liters available](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), severely impacting public health and sanitation. The Logistics Cluster was unable to access and assess its common storage facility in Rafah since [May 7, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), hindering storage services and cargo notification for humanitarian actors due to escalating hostilities and access constraints. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) warned that humanitarian operations in Gaza were ["near collapse"](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) due to limited functionality of southern border crossings, meaning barely any fuel or aid was entering Gaza, leading to widespread desperation and hunger. The military incursion in Rafah and North Gaza severely disrupted the delivery of nutrition services, with [WFP partners losing access to 101 distribution points](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) for malnutrition prevention activities and [nine UNRWA nutrition sites being affected or closed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/).

Diplomatic efforts by [Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal were unsuccessful for three months](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) following the UN Security Council's backing of a deal on [June 10, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), with negotiations repeatedly stalling due to disagreements over Israeli military presence and prisoner releases. The United States used its [veto six times at the UN Security Council](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) to block resolutions calling for an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire, including in [February and November 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), linking an end to the conflict with hostage negotiations and reducing humanitarian aid to a tool of political and military coercion. The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) condemned Israeli bombardments of Rafah, including on [May 26, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), which killed [at least 45 people](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), as a violation of the ICJ's order to halt its offensive and allow humanitarian aid, demonstrating a defiance of international justice. The ongoing conflict and diplomatic failures have led to an estimated [10,000 Palestinians still believed to be trapped under rubble](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), presumably dead, as of [May 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), highlighting the immense human cost beyond immediate casualties.

The Gaza ceasefire collapse and subsequent escalation forced the deprioritization of long-term reconstruction efforts, with the UN estimating that rebuilding all of Gaza's destroyed homes could take [40 years](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) under existing restrictions on construction materials. The continued conflict and Israeli restrictions on aid and building materials, even after a ceasefire, have hindered emergency reconstruction projects, delaying the return of thousands of families to their homes and prolonging their displacement and instability. The focus on managing the immediate crisis diverted attention and resources from addressing the underlying political questions of Gaza's future governance, with core divergences in negotiations revolving around what would happen to Gaza after a ceasefire. The diplomatic failures and ongoing hostilities have led to a severe decline in regional stability, with the conflict impacting tourism in [Egypt, Israel, and Jordan](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), and contributing to attacks in the [Red Sea by Houthis](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) who link their actions to a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.

The war has set back [Gaza's human development index by 69 years, to 1955 levels](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), due to extensive destruction and suffering, as estimated by the UN in [October 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/). More than [80% of Gaza's health facilities and roads are damaged or destroyed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), and nearly [70% of its water and sanitation plants, including all five wastewater treatment facilities, have been destroyed or damaged](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), representing a catastrophic loss of critical infrastructure. The forced displacement of Gaza's most talented and educated individuals, who fled to save their lives, has created an additional economic challenge and a loss of human capital for future development. The failure to secure a lasting ceasefire has resulted in continued civilian casualties, with [nearly another 1,000 Palestinians killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/) since a ceasefire took effect, including [over 250 children](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), according to UNICEF reports. The international community's failure to pass ceasefire resolutions has been described as an ["abdication of legal and moral responsibility to children"](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/), with Save the Children highlighting the disregard for the lives of [one million children in Gaza](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/).

### Verification
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued new provisional measures on May 24, 2024, ordering Israel to immediately halt military operations in Rafah and open the Rafah border crossing for urgent aid deliveries, a decision supported by 13 votes to two following a request from South Africa in a pending case accusing Israel of violating the Genocide Convention. The UN revised its estimate in May 2024 regarding the demographics of those killed. The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2735 on June 10, 2024, detailing a three-phase ceasefire deal. The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) condemned Israeli bombardments of Rafah, including on May 26, 2024, which killed at least 45 people, as a violation of the ICJ's order to halt its offensive and allow humanitarian aid.

### Supplement
Core divergences in negotiations revolved around what would happen to Gaza after a ceasefire, diverting attention from underlying political questions of its future governance. The United States used its veto six times at the UN Security Council to block resolutions calling for an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire, linking an end to the conflict with hostage negotiations and reducing humanitarian aid to a tool of political and military coercion. The diplomatic failures and ongoing hostilities have led to a severe decline in regional stability, impacting tourism in Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, and contributing to attacks in the Red Sea by Houthis who link their actions to a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.

### Evidence
* Reuters: [https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-renewed-hostilities-spark-global-outrage-2024-05-15/)
* UN (for estimates on reconstruction, human development index, and casualty demographics)
* UNICEF reports (for continued civilian casualties post-ceasefire)
* Save the Children (for statements on legal and moral responsibility)